Making Sense of Energy

Residential Energy Rates in Alberta: What to do? October 2018 Edition

By Cameron Mitchell
Solution 105 Consulting Ltd.

“SNOW ALREADY FLYING”

September electricity spot prices settled near 5 cents per kWh. October is expected to be in the 6 cent per kWh range and the remainder of 2018 is around 6 cents per kWh. Time to move to a fixed rate for power! Not much change for gas – it remains cheap, at well under $2/GJ.

WE RECOMMEND:

  • Gas onto Direct Energy REGULATED Services. DERS. This is the default, no retailer rate.
  • Electricity:
    • Here are the best options:
      • ATCOenergy has a 5.89 cents/kWh option. Rates stable for 3 years. $5.00/month admin. Free termination. Half off energy in November and December promotion.
      • Encor by EPCOR has a 5.89 cents/kWh option. Rates stable for 2 years. $7.00/month admin. Free termination.
      • EasyMax by ENMAX Energy has a 5.89 cents/kWh option. Rates stable for 1 year. $7.10/month admin. Free termination.
  • Best floating rate option:
    • Best option is ENRG Power, as their floating rate is spot plus 0.22 cents/kWh (this rate recently dropped from 0.55). Monthly admin fee of $5.90/month.

AT MY HOUSE

I am not planning to move from my current plans at this time. I am sticking with my fixed 5.39 cents/kWh electricity rate with ATCOenergy. For gas, I’m with Direct Energy REGULATED Services. That is the best gas option both short and long term at present.

NATURAL GAS

For gas, we are not seeing any exciting residential fixed rate offers. Most offers are higher than $3.00/GJ. The shorter term forward market is around $2.00/GJ for October and November. Longer term pricing is still below $2.00/GJ into 2022. So for gas, we recommend going with Direct Energy REGULATED Services (DERS)… remember “Regulated Service”. If you aren’t with these guys now, you will automatically go there if you terminate your current gas contract. Make sure there are no termination fees! There may also be a small enrollment fee to get on with DERS.

For October, the DERS rate is $1.322 /GJ. For November, we are expecting a DERS gas rate around $2.20/GJ. Looking at the longer view, we still recommend DERS. Index offers from most retailers add around $0.70/GJ or more for fees to the floating rate. As DERS fees are closer to $0.06/GJ, we recommend residents stay on the default gas rate.

ELECTRICTY

As noted previously, I am on a fixed rate product. I am a bit risk averse, and don’t really want big swings on my bills if I can avoid it. Plus, the forward market is suggesting rates that are slightly higher than the offers available – so the fixed offers are pretty good.

Forward pricing currently suggests index residential rates will come in around 6 cents/kWh for October and November. The remainder of 2018 is expected to average around 6 cents/kWh. September 2018 averaged about 5 cents/kWh.

If I were to pick an option today, I’d likely move forward with the three year ATCOenergy option – especially with November and December being half off. However, this is only if I didn’t already have a better contract in place.

Just to help put things into perspective, all that we are talking about here is the commodity rates and costs, not the delivery and other regulated charges. An average house might use around 9,000 kWh and 100 GJ over a year.

COMMERCIAL USERS

And for those of you who are not residential users, and maybe a bit bigger, give us a call. We are seeing even better pricing for commercial users so get in touch and we can help.