By Cameron Mitchell
Solution 105 Consulting Ltd.
“THINGS STARTING TO COOL OFF”
September gave us one last kick at warm summer weather, but as the days get shorter in October, we will most certainly have less sunshine and cooler temperatures.
In the Alberta electricity commodity market, September averaged roughly 8 cents per kWh on a floating rate. October and November forward market rates suggest those months will come in around 6 cents per kWh and 5.5 cents per kWh, respectively. The remainder of 2025 and calendar 2026 are trading just under 6 cents per kWh.
The spot market for natural gas averaged roughly $0.30/GJ for August – which is the lowest rate we have seen for more than a decade. The forward market for natural gas shows short-term rates may peak around $3.25/GJ in January or February. 2026 to 2029 are in the $3.20/GJ range. This being the case, we suggest moving to a floating rate if your current fixed rate is above $3.50/GJ.
WE RECOMMEND:
Natural Gas: Unless you have a fixed rate under $3.50/GJ, we recommend getting onto a floating rate.
Best floating rate options:
- Direct Energy REGULATED Services. DERS. This is the default, no retailer rate. It is a floating rate. Check with your current provider to ensure there are no cancellation fees, etc. This rate is very close to spot plus $0.117 per GJ. The monthly admin fee is about $10.65/month.
- Encor by EPCOR has a floating rate of spot plus $1/GJ. The monthly admin fee has recently been increased to about $9.73/month. $50 referral credit linked here.
Best fixed rate option:
- Prairie Power moved their 1-year fixed rate option to $3.69/GJ with a monthly admin fee of $8.99/mth.
Electricity:
Best fixed rate option:
- Abode Power has a great fixed rate option at 5.93 cents per kWh but it only runs until the end of January 2026. Deposit and PAD required. Admin of just $5.00 per month! Free termination.
Best floating rate option:
- Encor by EPCOR has a floating rate of spot plus 1.00 cents/kWh. The monthly admin fee has recently been increased to about $9.73/month. $50 referral credit linked here.
AT MY HOUSE:
On March 1, 2025, I moved my electricity to a floating rate with Encor by EPCOR. The Abode Power fixed rate option that runs until January 31 looks great, but I plan to stick with my electricity plan for now. That said, I will continue to watch for fixed rate opportunities.
For gas, I plan to continue floating with Direct Energy REGULATED Services. DERS.
If something better comes along in the future, these plans can be terminated at no cost.
NATURAL GAS
The retail offers we have seen are no better than $3.69/GJ. Short term forward market pricing is below $3.00/GJ, with October 2025 expected to average around $0.90/GJ, and pricing below $3.00/GJ until January 2026. So, for gas, we recommend a floating rate. In general, a good option is to go with Direct Energy REGULATED Services (DERS)… remember “Regulated Service”. If you are not with DERS now, you will automatically go there if you terminate your current gas contract. Make sure there are no termination fees! There may also be a small enrollment fee to get on with DERS.
DERS has an admin fee of about $10.65 per month and their floating rate includes a margin of roughly $0.117 per GJ. Still, this is better than most floating margins which average over $0.40 per GJ.
For October, the Direct Energy Regulated Services (“DERS”) rate is $1.429 /GJ. Approximately $0.05/GJ of this figure is to recover previous period undercharges. We expect November’s DERS rate will be approximately $2.25/GJ.
ELECTRICITY
As the forward market is suggesting electricity rates for October and November may be in the 6 cents per kWh range, we recommend people with fixed rates higher than 7 cents per kWh to make a move to a floating rate option. The Encor by EPCOR floating plan is a good one. $50 referral credit linked here. Alternatively, Abode Power came out with a promotional fixed rate option of $0.0593 per kWh until January 31, 2026 for new customers – which is a super rate and one we would not hesitate to recommend.
September averaged about 8 cents/kWh on the floating index. The remainder of 2025 and 2026 are trading just under 6 cents per kWh.
Just to help put things into perspective, all that we are talking about here is the commodity rates and costs, not the delivery and other regulated charges. An average house might use around 9,000 kWh and 100 GJ over a year.
COMMERCIAL
And for those of you who are not residential users, give us a call. We are now seeing much better pricing for commercial users compared to residential users, and we can help get the lowest rates for your business.