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Home » Energy Market Update – May 2026

Energy Market Update – May 2026

Alberta

The consequences of weakening Alberta’s industrial carbon pricing

According to reports, the federal government is expected to announce an agreement that would allow Alberta’s effective industrial carbon price to reach only $130 per tonne by 2040, rather than following the previously planned trajectory toward $170 per tonne by 2030. Modeling conducted under three emissions scenarios suggests that this delayed carbon pricing schedule would postpone the construction of the Pathways carbon capture and storage project until 2040. Combined with increased oil production enabled by new pipeline export capacity, the delay could result in an additional 230 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent (MtCO₂e) emissions by 2040 compared with a scenario in which no new pipeline capacity is added and the Pathways project proceeds by 2030.

The analysis compares: (1) a Current Measures + Pathways 2030 scenario, based on the Canada Energy Regulator’s outlook with the carbon price rising to $170/t by 2030 and Pathways operating by 2030; (2) a Pipeline + Pathways 2030 scenario, which adds one million barrels per day of pipeline capacity between 2030 and 2034 while maintaining the original carbon price schedule; and (3) a Pipeline + Pathways 2040 scenario, which combines expanded pipeline capacity with a weaker carbon price that reaches only $130/t by 2040, delaying Pathways until 2040. The accompanying carbon price projections indicate that, after adjusting for inflation, the effective TIER credit price would remain largely stagnant under the reported plan, reducing its ability to incentivize industrial decarbonization investments.

Source: Pembina Institute

Electricity Prices for Alberta

The Alberta power pool price averaged 4.298 cents per kWh in May 2026. This price is 1.537 cents higher than last month’s average of 2.761 cents. The pool price has averaged 4.142 cents per kWh over the last 12 months.

As of May 1, 2026, the forward market was predicting electricity prices for the calendar years of 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, and 2031. These prices are 4.500, 4.627, 6.150, 7.376, 7.726, and 8.026 cents per kWh, respectively.

Gas Prices for Alberta

Direct Energy’s gas rate for May 2026 was $0.936 per GJ in Alberta. The June 2026 rate has been set at $2.076 per GJ. Alberta gas prices have averaged $1.873 per GJ over the last 12 months.

As of June 1, 2026, the forward market was predicting gas prices for the calendar years of 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, and 2030. These prices are 2.14, 2.41, 2.53, 2.61, and 2.57 cents per GJ, respectively.

 

British Columbia

Strengthening clean power and infrastructure for British Columbia’s critical minerals advantage

The Government of Canada has announced more than $100 million in funding for five critical mineral and infrastructure projects in British Columbia aimed at strengthening the province’s mining, processing and clean energy capabilities. The investments are intended to support Canada’s position in the global clean energy economy by leveraging British Columbia’s mineral resources, hydroelectric power capacity and partnerships with Indigenous Nations. The announcement was made during a visit to Nano One Materials’ Innovation Hub, where federal officials highlighted initiatives designed to accelerate critical mineral development and expand value-chain capacity. Key investments include up to $50 million for BC Hydro transmission upgrades supporting the life extension of Teck Resources’ Highland Valley Copper Mine, up to $44.2 million for expanded transmission capacity serving major mining projects in northwestern British Columbia, and up to $3 million for Nano One Materials to advance lithium iron phosphate battery material production. Additional funding will support infrastructure for Defense Metals’ Wicheeda Rare Earth Elements Project, establish Indigenous-led critical mineral expertise through the Salish Sea Indigenous Guardians Association and Osoyoos Indian Band, and advance the Anyox Hydroelectric facility. According to the government, these projects are expected to promote economic growth, Indigenous participation, clean energy development and long-term competitiveness in Canada’s critical minerals sector.

Source: Government of Canada

 

Ontario

Ontario putting full weight behind pushing Bruce C nuclear project forward

The Government of Ontario has signed a $300 million cost-sharing agreement with Bruce Power to advance planning and pre-development work for the proposed Bruce C nuclear project, which would add four new reactors to the existing Bruce Power facility near Kincardine. The project, Ontario’s first large-scale nuclear expansion in more than 30 years, is expected to generate approximately 18,900 jobs during development, create more than 6,000 permanent positions, and contribute an estimated $230 billion to Canada’s economy over the next 80 years. If completed, the 4,800-megawatt facility would produce enough electricity to power nearly five million homes and support Ontario’s growing long-term energy needs. The funding will support activities such as site planning, community consultations, technology selection, environmental studies and regional infrastructure assessments while the project undergoes the federal approval process, which is not expected to conclude before 2028.

Local governments will use part of the funding to evaluate impacts on housing, healthcare, transportation and workforce requirements associated with the project. While regional public support appears strong, the Saugeen Ojibway Nation has raised concerns that its right to free, prior and informed consent has not yet been formally recognized by the federal government, Ontario or Bruce Power. Project proponents have stated that ongoing engagement with the Nation will be a key part of the planning process. If approvals are secured by 2030, construction and commissioning could take up to 17 years, including site preparation.

Source:  CTV News

 

Saskatchewan

Leaked SaskPower documents show ‘extreme’ risk in $26B coal refurbishment plan

A leaked SaskPower briefing document has raised concerns about the Saskatchewan government’s decision to invest $26 billion over 25 years to refurbish and extend the life of coal-fired power plants. The document, presented to SaskPower’s audit and finance committee and board in late 2025, reportedly characterized the plan as carrying an “extreme” residual risk profile. Internal projections indicated that, even without federal industrial carbon pricing costs, the average cost of electricity could be approximately 20% higher by 2030 and 95% higher by 2040 compared with 2025 levels. The analysis also noted that coal generation remains highly emissions-intensive and could expose SaskPower to substantial carbon compliance costs. The document identified significant reliability, financial and regulatory risks associated with extending coal operations.

Concerns included increased outage risks due to aging infrastructure, uncertainty surrounding negotiations over industrial carbon pricing, and potential non-compliance with federal Clean Electricity Regulations and existing equivalency agreements governing coal generation. The Saskatchewan NDP argued the findings demonstrate that the government’s strategy is economically and operationally unsound, while also jeopardizing previous commitments to renewable energy development and emissions reductions. SaskPower acknowledged that internal analyses are routinely conducted to evaluate options but stated that such documents should not be interpreted as finalized government policy decisions.

Source: CBC

 

Manitoba

Manitoba Government to Accelerate Clean Technology with $3.75-Million Foresight Canada Partnership

The Manitoba government has announced a partnership with the Foresight Cleantech Accelerator Centre, committing up to $1.25 million annually over three years to support clean technology adoption and advance the province’s Path to Net Zero strategy. The initiative aims to strengthen Manitoba’s cleantech sector by accelerating the deployment of innovative technologies, attracting private investment, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting economic growth. Foresight, a national non-profit specializing in clean technology commercialization, will lead a cluster-based approach targeting sectors with the greatest potential for environmental and economic impact. The partnership will bring together industry, Indigenous organizations, academic institutions and government agencies to develop and launch clean technology pilot projects across Manitoba. Key objectives include increasing Indigenous participation in project activities by 25%, leveraging private-sector investment and creating new employment opportunities. Expected outcomes over the first year include at least four clean technology pilot projects, $500,000 in private investment, 30 new high-quality jobs and expanded workforce training opportunities. The province stated that the initiative is intended to support long-term climate goals while fostering a competitive, sustainable and innovation-driven economy.

Source: Government of Manitoba

 

New Brunswick

Massive solar farm proposal promises 150 MW of clean energy

A partnership between the North Shore Mi’kmaq Tribal Council and Ireland-based renewable energy developer BNRG Renewables has proposed the Cookville Solar Project, a 150-megawatt solar farm in southeastern New Brunswick that would become the largest solar project in the province and one of the largest in Canada. Planned for a 400-hectare site near Cookville, north of Sackville, the facility is expected to generate enough electricity annually to power approximately 12,500 homes while producing no direct greenhouse gas emissions. If built today, the project would rank among the country’s largest utility-scale solar installations, highlighting the growing role of renewable energy in Atlantic Canada. The project would involve the installation of approximately 340,000 solar panels, along with supporting infrastructure such as a substation and communications tower. Construction is expected to take 18 to 24 months, with completion targeted for mid-2029 and an operational lifespan of about 40 years.

The development is being planned on land owned primarily by the Acton family, with agricultural activities such as sheep grazing, blueberry cultivation and honey production expected to continue alongside solar generation. While NB Power has not yet agreed to purchase the project’s electricity, the proposal is under consideration as part of the utility’s broader efforts to secure additional renewable energy capacity. Public consultations are planned as the project moves through environmental assessment and regulatory review processes.

Source: CBC

 

Prince Edward Island

P.E.I. business leaders worry power system may not keep up with AI growth

Business leaders on Prince Edward Island are raising concerns that the province’s electricity infrastructure may not be able to support growing demand driven by artificial intelligence, digital technologies and industrial expansion. While the federal government recently announced support for 44 companies through its AI Compute Access Fund, local stakeholders argue that energy supply constraints could limit future economic growth. The Greater Charlottetown Area Chamber of Commerce warned that the province is approaching capacity limits at certain times and emphasized that reliable electricity is essential for both technology adoption and the expansion of manufacturing and other industries. Maritime Electric has reported increasing pressure on the provincial grid and has warned of potential supply shortfalls during peak demand periods, with rotating outages identified as a possible last-resort measure to maintain system stability.

Most of Prince Edward Island’s electricity is imported from New Brunswick through four submarine transmission cables, two of which are nearing the end of their operational life. The provincial government has identified cable replacement as a priority project requiring federal support. Federal officials have acknowledged the need for expanded electricity infrastructure, pointing to Canada’s new National Electricity Strategy, which aims to significantly increase grid capacity by 2050. Industry experts also noted that while AI offers opportunities to improve productivity and efficiency, its growing computational requirements are contributing to rising electricity demand and increasing pressure on energy systems.

Source: CP24

 

Québec

Carbon market in Québec: New draft regulation proposes key changes to the cap-and-trade system

On May 20, 2026, the Government of Quebec released draft amendments to its cap-and-trade (C&T) carbon market regulations, representing the most significant overhaul of the system in years. The proposed changes are intended to strengthen the province’s greenhouse gas reduction framework, support potential market linkage with Washington State, and align the program with evolving North American carbon market standards. Quebec’s C&T system, which has been linked with California since 2014 and covers roughly 80% of provincial emissions, currently requires regulated emitters to hold allowances or offset credits to cover their greenhouse gas emissions.

The government plans to finalize the amendments in late 2026, with many changes taking effect beginning in the 2027 compliance period. Key reforms include reducing the allowable use of offset credits from 8% to 6% of compliance obligations, introducing minimum requirements for Quebec-issued offset credits, tightening eligibility rules for offset projects, restructuring compliance periods, updating emissions accounting rules, expanding eligibility for free emissions allowances in certain industries, and strengthening disclosure requirements for investment funds and market advisers. The amendments are expected to increase demand for Quebec-generated offset credits while encouraging greater domestic emissions reductions. The reforms also come amid broader changes to carbon pricing across Canada, including Alberta’s recently announced adjustments to its TIER system and a revised federal carbon pricing benchmark. Stakeholders will be closely watching the potential integration of Washington State into the Quebec-California carbon market, which could create a three-jurisdiction trading system as early as 2027.

Source: Dentons

 

Newfoundland and Labrador

econext Introduces 2026 Project Zero Incubator Cohort

econext, in partnership with Synergy Foundation, has announced the 2026 cohort of the Project Zero econext Incubator, a six-month program designed to support early-stage businesses advancing circular economy solutions in Newfoundland and Labrador. The incubator focuses on ventures that reduce waste, extend product lifecycles, improve resource efficiency and promote sustainable economic development. Selected participants will receive business coaching, mentorship, customized training and support in developing business plans, culminating in a final pitch event scheduled for December 2026. The 2026 cohort includes ventures working across a range of sustainability sectors, including renewable energy planning, product reuse and repair, digital marketplaces for second-hand goods, land stewardship, automotive parts recovery, textile recycling, plastics recycling and industrial water treatment, and redistribution platforms that divert usable materials from landfills. Through these initiatives, the program aims to foster innovation, strengthen the province’s circular economy and create opportunities for sustainable business growth. Econext and Synergy Foundation stated that the incubator is intended to help entrepreneurs transform environmental challenges into economic opportunities while contributing to Newfoundland and Labrador’s transition toward a more resource-efficient and resilient economy.

Source: econext

 

Nova Scotia

Real project or pipe dream? Making a run at low-carbon jet fuel in N.S.

Nova Sustainable Fuels has unveiled plans for a proposed $6 billion sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) project in Goldboro, Guysborough County, aimed at producing 165,000 tonnes of low-carbon jet fuel annually. The project would combine a fuel production plant with a 1.1-gigawatt renewable energy system consisting of a 300-megawatt solar farm, an 800-megawatt wind farm, and a dedicated 65-kilometre transmission line. Company representatives presented the proposal to approximately 60 residents at an open house in Sherbrooke, emphasizing that growing international requirements for SAF—particularly in Europe—could create strong future demand. The project would use woody biomass and hydrogen produced through electrolysis to create fuel that is expected to emit 85% less carbon than conventional jet fuel. Nova Sustainable Fuels argues that Nova Scotia offers key advantages, including abundant renewable energy resources, certified forestry biomass, an industrially zoned coastal site in Goldboro, and a stable regulatory environment. The proposal promises significant economic benefits but faces questions about feasibility, environmental impacts, and resource requirements.

A Deloitte assessment estimates the project could generate thousands of construction jobs, contribute billions to provincial GDP, and create long-term employment opportunities while providing a new market for low-grade forestry products. However, the project would require approximately 750,000 tonnes of biomass annually and substantial water withdrawals, raising concerns about forestry sustainability and local water supplies. Company officials acknowledged public skepticism, citing the region’s history of unrealized megaprojects, and stressed that key approvals, environmental assessments, engineering studies, and financing decisions remain ahead. A final investment decision is not expected before 2028, with the earliest operational date projected for 2031.

Source: Halifax Examiner

 

Nunavut

Nunavut’s Energy Transition – Powered by Solar

Nunavut is in the early stages of an energy transition that is gradually introducing solar power into a system still heavily dependent on diesel generation. Across the territory, solar installations—ranging from small residential systems to larger community and commercial projects—have been deployed in locations such as Iqaluit, Rankin Inlet, Kugluktuk, and several other communities. These projects are also expanding through programs supporting Inuit and community ownership, including initiatives that allow participants to sell excess power back to the grid. While diesel remains essential for a reliable electricity supply due to Nunavut’s extreme climate and logistical challenges, the increasing adoption of solar energy is helping build experience with renewable systems and how they integrate with existing infrastructure.

The transition is being framed as a gradual, experimental process focused on testing technology, improving system design, and building operational knowledge rather than immediately reducing diesel use. Challenges such as long winter darkness, extreme cold, and equipment logistics make renewable deployment more complex than in southern regions, reinforcing the need for phased implementation. Despite these constraints, each new solar project is viewed as progress toward a more resilient and locally driven energy system. Officials and energy stakeholders emphasize that while diesel will continue to play a central role in the near term, the steady expansion of solar power signals the foundation of a more sustainable energy future for Nunavut.

Source: Nunavut Climate Change Secretariat

 

Northwest Territories

Launch of the Regional Database and Major Project Review Tool

The Government of the Northwest Territories (GNWT) has welcomed the launch of the Mackenzie Valley Environmental Impact Review Board’s new Regional Database and Major Project Review Tool, describing it as an important advancement for environmental governance, regulatory coordination, and evidence-based decision-making in the territory. Ministers emphasized that the platform consolidates climate, water, wildlife, geoscience, infrastructure, and socio-economic data into a single system, improving information-sharing across governments, Indigenous partners, and regulatory bodies. The initiative is framed as a step toward strengthening cumulative effects management, reducing duplication, and ensuring that development decisions are informed, transparent, and grounded in both scientific and Indigenous knowledge systems.

GNWT ministers highlighted the tool’s significance for balancing environmental protection with economic development opportunities, particularly in critical minerals, infrastructure, and energy projects. Officials stated that improved data accessibility will increase regulatory clarity and predictability, supporting responsible investment while maintaining strong environmental standards and public confidence. The initiative is also presented as part of broader efforts to streamline project assessment processes, improve coordination across agencies, and enable more efficient planning for major developments that contribute to long-term economic growth and Arctic infrastructure expansion.

Source: Government of Northwest Territories

 

Yukon

As permafrost thaws, some headwaters in Canada’s North turn orange and toxic: study

A new study published in Science has found that thawing permafrost in northern Yukon is exposing ancient sulphide-rich bedrock, causing toxic metals and acidic runoff to enter previously pristine streams and rivers. Researchers documented 146 affected streams across the Yukon and Mackenzie River basins, with some waterways experiencing a rapid decline in water quality since 2024. In the most severe cases, acidity levels and concentrations of metals such as aluminum and cadmium were comparable to those found at heavily contaminated mining sites, exceeding safety thresholds for humans and wildlife by hundreds or even thousands of times. Scientists warn that the phenomenon, often referred to as “rusting rivers,” represents a significant environmental threat driven by climate change and accelerating permafrost degradation.

The study found that warming temperatures and permafrost thaw are allowing water and oxygen to interact with previously frozen bedrock, triggering chemical reactions that release acidity and toxic metals into nearby streams. While larger downstream rivers have not yet shown dangerous levels of contamination due to dilution and natural chemical processes, researchers remain concerned about the long-term impacts on fish populations, biodiversity, drinking water sources, and Indigenous communities that rely on these watersheds. The affected streams are located in ecologically and culturally important areas, including the Peel watershed and regions near Tombstone Territorial Park. Researchers are calling for expanded monitoring and public awareness efforts to better understand the scale of the issue and its potential consequences for northern ecosystems already under pressure from climate change.

Source: The Canadian Press