By Cameron Mitchell
Solution 105 Consulting Ltd.
GETTING READY FOR WINTER AND MAKING A CHANGE TO MY ELECTRICITY PLAN
Thoughts of yard clean-up and winter preparations are upon us as Alberta’s electricity and natural gas forward markets continue to hum along – and at low rates in the short term.
In September, the electricity market averaged roughly 3.5 cents per kWh on a floating rate. October was roughly 5.5 cents per kWh. November and December forward market rates suggest those months may settle around 5 cents per kWh. Calendar 2027 is trading around 5 cents per kWh. Calendar 2028-2031 moved upwards around half a cent per kWh compared to last month. 2028 is now trading around 7 cents per kWh, and 2029 is around 9 cents per kWh.
The spot market for natural gas averaged roughly $1.60/GJ for September and $1.90/GJ for October. The forward market for natural gas shows short-term rates are expected to peak at about $2.15/GJ this winter, and $2.60/GJ next winter. Forward rates are trading under $3.25/GJ until February 2031. As such, we recommend moving to a floating rate if your current fixed gas rate is above $2.40/GJ.
WE RECOMMEND:
Natural Gas: Unless you have a fixed rate under $2.40/GJ, we recommend getting onto a floating rate.
Best floating rate options:
- Direct Energy REGULATED Services. DERS. This is the default, no retailer rate. It is a floating rate. Check with your current provider to ensure there are no cancellation fees, etc. This rate is very close to spot plus $0.132 per GJ. The monthly admin fee is about $11.28/month.
- Encor by EPCOR has a floating rate of spot plus $1/GJ. The monthly admin fee has recently been increased to about $9.73/month. $50 referral credit linked here.
Electricity:
Best fixed rate option:
- Prairie Power has a 5.69 cents per kWh fixed rate option for a 1-year term. The monthly admin fee is $9.99/month.
- Note that this one-year rate does not have free termination unless you move. Termination within the first 12 months comes with a $75 termination fee. A deposit may be required.
- $50 referral credit linked here.
- If you have solar, they have a 5.29 cents per kWh option for winter (and a 40 cents per kWh rate for summer) with a 2-year term (with admin of just $8.99 per month).
Best floating rate option:
Encor by EPCOR has a floating rate of spot plus 1.00 cents/kWh. The monthly admin fee is about $9.73/month. $50 referral credit linked here.
AT MY HOUSE:
I have signed up for the Prairie Power fixed rate with a start date of December 1, 2026, for my electricity. If you want to join me, here is a $50 referral credit link. For gas, I plan to continue floating with Direct Energy REGULATED Services, DERS, for now.
We will continue to watch to see if other better plans come along in the future.
NATURAL GAS
The retail offers we have seen are no better than $2.88/GJ. Forward market pricing is under $2.75/GJ for the next 2 years, and November 2026 is expected to average around $1.80/GJ. 2026 forward rates are expected to peak around $2.15/GJ in February this winter. So, for gas, we recommend a floating rate. In general, a good option is to go with Direct Energy REGULATED Services (DERS)… remember “Regulated Service”. If you are not with DERS now, you will automatically go there if you terminate your current gas contract. Make sure there are no termination fees! There may also be a small enrollment fee to get on with DERS.
DERS has an admin fee of about $11.28 per month, and their floating rate includes a margin of roughly $0.132 per GJ. Still, this is better than most floating margins, which average over $0.40 per GJ.
For October, the Direct Energy Regulated Services (“DERS”) rate was $1.458/GJ, and November DERS is $1.893/GJ. Approximately $0.12/GJ of the November figure is to be collected for previous period undercharges. We expect December’s DERS rate will be approximately $2.00/GJ.
ELECTRICITY
As the forward market is suggesting electricity rates for the balance of 2026 and Cal 2027 may be in the 5 cents per kWh range, we are recommending the 1-year fixed rate option at 5.69 cents per kWh available from Prairie Power. Here is a $50 referral credit link.
For a floating rate option, we like Encor by EPCOR. $50 referral credit linked here.
September averaged about 3.5 cents/kWh and October averaged about 5.5 cents/kWh on the floating index. The remainder of 2026 is trading near 5 cents per kWh.
Just to help put things into perspective, all that we are talking about here is the commodity rates and costs, not the delivery and other regulated charges. An average house might use around 9,000 kWh and 100 GJ over a year.
COMMERCIAL USERS
And for those of you who are not residential users, give us a call. We are now seeing much better pricing for commercial users compared to residential users, and we can help get the lowest rates for your business.