By Cameron Mitchell
Solution 105 Consulting Ltd.
“TURBULENT TIMES”
As news fluctuates between war and peace, rain and fire, strikes and tariffs, and a plethora of other issues, Alberta’s electricity and natural gas markets continue to chug along. Alberta electricity and natural gas forward markets have moved slightly upwards beyond 2028 compared to last month.
In July, the electricity market averaged roughly 4 cents per kWh on a floating rate. August and September forward market rates suggest those months may settle around 4 cents per kWh and 5 cents per kWh, respectively. The balance of Calendar 2026 is trading near 5 cents per kWh.
The spot market for natural gas averaged roughly $1.60/GJ for July. The forward market for natural gas shows short-term rates are expected to be around $1.75/GJ until winter, with a peak of roughly $2.60/GJ in January 2027. Forward rates are trading under $3.20/GJ until January 2029. As such, we recommend moving to a floating rate if your current fixed gas rate is above $2.80/GJ.
WE RECOMMEND:
Natural Gas: Unless you have a fixed rate under $2.80/GJ, we recommend getting onto a floating rate.
Best floating rate options:
- Direct Energy REGULATED Services. DERS. This is the default, no retailer rate. It is a floating rate. Check with your current provider to ensure there are no cancellation fees, etc. This rate is very close to spot plus $0.132 per GJ. The monthly admin fee is about $11.28/month.
- Encor by EPCOR has a floating rate of spot plus $1/GJ. The monthly admin fee has recently been increased to about $9.73/month. $50 referral credit linked here.
Electricity: Unless you have a long-term fixed rate under 6.5 cents per kWh, we recommend getting onto a floating rate.
Best floating rate option:
- Encor by EPCOR has a floating rate of spot plus 1.00 cents/kWh. The monthly admin fee is about $9.73/month. $50 referral credit linked here.
Direct Energy Retail has an interesting introductory fixed rate offer:
- Admin of $12.50 per meter per month with one utility type, or $10 per meter per month with gas and electricity.
- 99 cents per kWh on a 2-year term, with introductory rate of 3.59 cents per kWh until December 31, 2026.
$4.19/GJ on a 2-year term, with introductory rate of $3.59 per GJ until December 31, 2026.
AT MY HOUSE:
On March 1, 2025, I moved my electricity to a floating rate with Encor by EPCOR.
For gas, I plan to continue floating with Direct Energy REGULATED Services. DERS.
The Direct Energy Retail introductory offer until the end of this year is interesting, but I am not planning to make the switch. The gas rate of $3.59/GJ is still higher than market, and the 3.59 cent per kWh rate isn’t enough for me to make a move for ~5 months. That said, high electricity users (or low gas users) might find this offer appealing.
If something better comes along in the future, these plans can be terminated at no cost.
NATURAL GAS
The retail offers we have seen are no better than $3.19/GJ. Forward market pricing is under $3.20/GJ for the next 2.5 years, and August 2026 is expected to average around $1.40/GJ. 2026 forward rates are expected to peak around $2.55/GJ in December 2026. So, for gas, we recommend a floating rate. In general, a good option is to go with Direct Energy REGULATED Services (DERS)… remember “Regulated Service”. If you are not with DERS now, you will automatically go there if you terminate your current gas contract. Make sure there are no termination fees! There may also be a small enrollment fee to get on with DERS.
DERS has an admin fee of about $11.28 per month and their floating rate includes a margin of roughly $0.132 per GJ. Still, this is better than most floating margins which average over $0.40 per GJ.
For August, the Direct Energy Regulated Services (“DERS”) rate is $1.729/GJ. Approximately $0.13/GJ of this figure is to collect previous period undercharges. We expect September’s DERS rate will be approximately $1.50/GJ.
ELECTRICITY
As the forward market is suggesting electricity rates for August may be in the 4 cents per kWh range, we recommend people with fixed rates higher than 6.5 cents per kWh to make a move to a floating rate option. The Encor by EPCOR floating plan is a good one. $50 referral credit linked here.
July averaged about 4 cents/kWh on the floating index. The remainder of 2026 is trading near 5 cents per kWh.
Just to help put things into perspective, all that we are talking about here is the commodity rates and costs, not the delivery and other regulated charges. An average house might use around 9,000 kWh and 100 GJ over a year.
COMMERCIAL USERS
And for those of you who are not residential users, give us a call. We are now seeing much better pricing for commercial users compared to residential users, and we can help get the lowest rates for your business.